One first market. Everything else is earned.
The litepaper describes the destination: an agent-first exchange with a marketplace and staged live execution. This document is the plan. A single wedge, gates sequenced by dependency and proof, each with a pass metric and a kill criterion. Calendar labels are targets; gates are the truth.
The proving ground for trading agents
Not “an exchange” on day one. The range: agents rehearse against recorded markets at chosen speed and come back with receipts proving no look-ahead. Unique today, hard to copy honestly, and the exact thing live-venue agent APIs (Kraken, Binance, OKX, Robinhood) do not offer.
“TradingView bar-replay for AI agents: metered sessions, proof of no look-ahead.”
Buyer: the agent’s operator, meaning semi-technical traders running Claude/ChatGPT/Gemini, and agent-framework developers who need an environment and an eval. Distribution: an MCP connector + skills inside the chat clients they already use. Crypto tapes on the public tier; CME futures in private beta until licensing clears.
Credible venue
in progresstarget · wksThe thing we demo must not wobble. Ship the fixes already in flight and lock them with the visual loop.
Ship
- Layout fixes deployed (void, gate, full-height cockpit rail)
- Live decision tape end-to-end (WS `decision` frames)
- ASCII mobile containment; visual-verify green on deploy
Depends on
- Backend `decision` WS variant (in flight)
- Merged agent edits, one coherent deploy
PASS → visual-verify exits 0 on taifoon.io, full state matrix; a stranger completes one replay session unaided. Kill: nothing, this gate is table stakes.
Agent door + Cubicle skin
nexttarget · Q3 '26Acquisition. One key, one MCP connector, docs an agent can follow, under the AlgoTrada brand.
Ship
- MCP server + skills (sessions, orient, orders, receipts)
- The Cubicle skin on the AlgoTrada site
- Glyph-grammar wiki v1 · quickstarts for Claude/GPT/Gemini
- Free tier: N session-hours/mo, crypto tapes
Depends on
- G0 · domain + entitlement stub (free tier only)
PASS → 100 operators run ≥1 session; ≥25 come back in week 2 (retention, not signups). Kill/pivot: operators sample once and vanish → the wedge is wrong; re-aim at framework-eval (sell the environment to OSS agent frameworks) before building anything else.
First revenue: metered proving ground
target · Q4 '26Charge for what is already valuable: parallel sessions, speed, longer windows, private tapes, receipt exports.
Ship
- Billing + metering (session-hours × speed)
- Skills packs v1 (indicators, graded answers)
- Session forking / A-B compare · RL-friendly eval exports
- Design-partner program (10 named operators/desks)
Depends on
- G1 retention signal · measured $/session-hour
- CME licensing path chosen (futures stay private beta until)
PASS → first $10k MRR or 3 design partners on paid contracts; unit margin on 1000× sessions known and positive. Kill: users love free, won't pay → move revenue to B2B eval licensing; do NOT proceed to marketplace on hope.
Identity: the keystone
target · with G2Canonical subjects (author / agent / algo, legs resolved) replacing string-prefix attribution. Unglamorous; everything trust-shaped sits on it.
Ship
- Canonical attribution resolver + subject API
- Per-subject receipted track records
- Leaderboard/account queries off prefix-matching
Depends on
- Backend work (documented in acceptance docs)
PASS → zero cross-contamination in account queries (regression-tested); every session attributable to one subject. No kill, this is a prerequisite for G4/G5; if G2 failed, this work still serves B2B eval.
Marketplace & re-seller
target · Q1 '27 · earnedOnly now: strategies listed with receipted track records, subscriptions, author payouts, copy-mirror with risk guards.
Ship
- Listings + subscriptions (software/data framing)
- Mirror executor: caps, kill-switch, audit chain
- Author revenue share · Skydweller as house author №1
Depends on
- G2 revenue signal · G3 identity · counsel per jurisdiction
PASS → 20 listed strategies with real subscribers; take-rate revenue > skills revenue trend. Kill: authors won't list / buyers won't trust → double down on eval + skills; the venue still compounds.
Staged live execution
target · Q2 '27 · earnedPaper → devnet → gated live through partner rails (Kraken, IBKR), armed-on-approval, receipts auditing every dispatch. The “exchange” story becomes literal only here.
PASS → first gated live accounts with zero unaudited dispatches. Kill: partner/regulatory friction too high → remain the proving ground + marketplace; that is already a company.
Open trading model
rides the corpusNemotron-family fine-tune on the receipted decision corpus. An option that accrues value at every gate, priced as research, never on the critical path.
No live capital before G5. No marketplace before identity. No futures-data marketing before licensing. No “AI-first exchange” headline before the proving ground retains. The bigger claim is earned at G4/G5, and saying it early invites comparison to venues with 1000× our liquidity.